Monday 24 October 2011

copper out look near term 24/10/2011


Longer term as mentioned above, new lows below the Oct 3rd low at 299.40 are favored.  However, such a move lower would be seen as the final downleg in the fall from the Aug 1st high at 454.00 (wave 5), longer term support lies just below there at 293/298 (50% retracement from the Dec 2008 low at 125.50, see weekly chart/2nd chart below), and the seasonal chart bottoms near the end of Oct and then firms through the end of the year (see 3rd chart below), with all suggesting that new lows may indeed be limited.  So for now given the somewhat high confidence of at least some new lows ahead, would also switch the longer term bias to the bearish side (currently at 320.65).  But will be watching closely for signs of a more important bottom (5 waves up on shorter term chart, false break of important support, etc.) to switch out.

Current:
Nearer term : short Oct 19th at 320.65, stop on close above bear t-line from early Sept (cur 343.50).

Longer term : bearish bias on Oct 19th at 320.65, but new lows below 299.40 may be limited.

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